Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45fb…f1f6
crypto · 341 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$937 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,304 · open −$1,426
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39,565
Realized+$2,304
Unrealized−$1,426
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses253 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions62
Markets (closed)320 / 341
History coverage4d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day759.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 62 History 320 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,554
7 days+$2,304
14 days+$2,304
30 days+$2,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $8,822 $8,864 +$42 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 78¢ $6,356 $6,446 +$90 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 39¢ 42¢ $4,662 $5,101 +$439 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 92¢ 99¢ $3,332 $3,579 +$247 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 58¢ $3,833 $2,761 −$1,072 (-28%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 84¢ 76¢ $2,494 $2,283 −$212 (-8%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $1,225 $1,547 +$322 (+26%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1,486 $1,271 −$215 (-14%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 84¢ $981 $895 −$85 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 84¢ 91¢ $783 $847 +$64 (+8%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 72¢ $861 $721 −$140 (-16%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 62¢ $756 $608 −$148 (-20%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $790 $594 −$196 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 93¢ 87¢ $627 $586 −$41 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 89¢ 75¢ $636 $532 −$104 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 71¢ 48¢ $503 $345 −$158 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $314 $327 +$13 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 69¢ 48¢ $384 $270 −$115 (-30%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 85¢ 97¢ $180 $205 +$26 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 95¢ $176 $190 +$14 (+8%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 59¢ 50¢ $225 $190 −$35 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $167 $186 +$19 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 77¢ 93¢ $140 $170 +$29 (+21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $132 $148 +$15 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $92 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $125 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $99 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $114 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $184 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $237 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $298 −$119 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $126 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $508 +$35 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $108 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $177 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $274 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $202 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $197 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $251 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $122 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $228 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $222 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $208 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $685 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $309 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$1,111
world 21% +$2,223
other 13% −$126
finance 1% +$54
sports 1% −$225
politics 0% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 -1.6% -11.0% 79% 32% -5.5%
≤30d 320 -1.6% -11.0% 79% 32% -5.5%
≤90d 320 -1.6% -11.0% 79% 32% -5.5%
all 320 -1.6% -11.0% 79% 32% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover759.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 32% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 14% -14.5%
15% -27.3% 6% -22.8%
20% -34.4% 3% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,564.80 · official $39,565.27 (match) · 3500 history records