Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
45 0x45fe…2423 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+16%) realized +$119 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$83
14 days+$83
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$81
other 33% −$55
crypto 8% −$18
world 3% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +4.2% -5.7% 44% 42% +5.6%
≤30d 49 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 41% -0.2%
≤90d 49 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 41% -0.2%
all 51 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 39% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 39% -2.4%
10% -23.5% 35% -11.8%
15% -30.9% 33% -20.3%
20% -37.7% 31% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage160d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$11 +22%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$17 -85%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$9 -28%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$13 +254%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$9 -83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $30 −$22 -71%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$32 +157%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$27 +105%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 +$9 +68%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$24 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 32m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL Yes 5¢ $3 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $25 21h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $10 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $4 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 23h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.67 · official $11.67 (match) · 243 history records