Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45fe…f0f6 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-25%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$47
sports 14% +$22
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +24.6% +12.7% 50% 50% -35.1%
≤30d 10 +24.6% +12.7% 50% 50% -35.1%
≤90d 10 +24.6% +12.7% 50% 50% -35.1%
all 10 +24.6% +12.7% 50% 50% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 50% -35.1%
10% +1.9% 50% -41.3%
15% -7.9% 50% -47.0%
20% -17.0% 40% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$18 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $4 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $29 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.78 · official $3.78 (match) · 24 history records