Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x45ff…6412 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$643 (+30%) realized +$643 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$720
other 40% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +26.4% +14.3% 63% 63% +31.6%
≤30d 19 +26.4% +14.3% 63% 63% +31.6%
≤90d 19 +26.4% +14.3% 63% 63% +31.6%
all 19 +26.4% +14.3% 63% 63% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 63% +31.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 58% +19.0%
15% -6.6% 47% +7.5%
20% -15.8% 42% -3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$29 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.87 per $1 lost it wins $5.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$643
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$9 +13%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$53 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$210 +206%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$99 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 −$6 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 −$5 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $49 59m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $281 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $255 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 27¢ $31 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $202 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 42¢ $71 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 10h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 10h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 31h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $166 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $196 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $172 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records