Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4600…3881 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
other 23% −$1
politics 17% +$2
sports 7% $0
culture 7% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 16 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 0% -9.1%
all 42 +5.1% -4.9% 36% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 2% -9.1%
10% -14.0% 2% -17.8%
15% -22.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -30.0% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage370d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $33 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $31 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Aug 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $24 $0 -1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $30 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $30 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $35 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $33 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $33 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $12 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $33 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $18 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $18 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $5 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $5 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $30 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records