Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4601…65a8 crypto 67 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate82%55W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -6.1% -15.0% 82% 30% -15.2%
≤30d 67 -6.1% -15.0% 82% 30% -15.2%
≤90d 67 -6.1% -15.0% 82% 30% -15.2%
all 67 -6.1% -15.0% 82% 30% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 30% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 16% -23.3%
15% -30.6% 10% -30.7%
20% -37.4% 3% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses55 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records