Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x4603…6f90 crypto 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$573 (-8%) realized −$928 · open +$355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%121W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day89.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days+$766
14 days+$766
30 days+$766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$779
other 10% −$1
sports 9% +$388
world 1% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 +41.5% +28.0% 46% 46% +0.3%
≤30d 262 +41.5% +28.0% 46% 46% +0.3%
≤90d 262 +41.5% +28.0% 46% 46% +0.3%
all 262 +41.5% +28.0% 46% 46% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.0% 46% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here +15.8% 45% -9.3%
15% +4.6% 45% -18.1%
20% -5.7% 44% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$25 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized−$928
Unrealized+$355
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses121 / 141
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)262 / 291
History coverage7d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day89.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 27¢ 50¢ $290 $537 +$247 (+85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 28¢ 50¢ $60 $108 +$48 (+80%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 15¢ 50¢ $20 $66 +$46 (+231%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 36¢ 50¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 37¢ 50¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 41¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $135 +$196 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $115 +$210 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $238 +$250 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $217 +$203 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $124 +$126 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $124 +$132 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $114 +$104 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$100 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $322 +$403 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$68 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$53 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$43 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$71 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $125 +$239 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.95 · official $774.95 (match) · 836 history records