Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4604…e378 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$184 (+4%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$555
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 52% +2.6%
≤30d 62 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 52% +2.6%
≤90d 62 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 52% +2.6%
all 62 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 52% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 52% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 50% -7.2%
15% -26.3% 50% -16.2%
20% -33.5% 45% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$43 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$139 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $104 +$74 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$131 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $315 +$431 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $311 +$226 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $209 +$187 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$49 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $105 +$113 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $310 −$16 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$6 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$14 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$3 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +205%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $716 +$124 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $104 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $315 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $19 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $105 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $206 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records