Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x4604…d57d crypto 866 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,127 (+17%) realized +$3,127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%423W / 443L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day96.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$807
14 days+$874
30 days+$2,388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$2,405
sports 12% +$49
other 1% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -26.0% -33.0% 39% 36% +3.8%
≤30d 866 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 45% -0.3%
≤90d 866 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 45% -0.3%
all 866 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 45% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 45% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -9.8%
15% -25.1% 32% -18.6%
20% -32.4% 25% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses423 / 443
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)866 / 866
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day96.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 866 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $123 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$115 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$21 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $131 +$132 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$33 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $719 −$303 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $387 +$343 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $94 +$46 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $182 +$107 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $491 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,199 +$1,168 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$104 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $65 +$83 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $87 +$98 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$23 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $76 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records