Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4607…7811
sports · 296 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$877 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$838 · open −$38
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$454
Realized−$838
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses103 / 175
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)278 / 296
History coverage237d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 18 History 278 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$33
14 days−$409
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 66¢ $130 $105 −$25 (-19%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $24 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings? No 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Fritz 23¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? No 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings? No 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $37 −$7 -19%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $145 +$52 +36%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 11 $82 +$7 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 02 $38 −$37 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 02 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 12 $21 −$12 -57%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9? Nov 12 $200 −$135 -67%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Nov 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Nov 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Nov 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Nov 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Nov 12 $35 −$7 -20%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 11 $24 −$19 -77%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 11 $160 −$96 -60%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Nov 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Panthers vs. Golden Knights Nov 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 11 $145 −$128 -88%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 11 $20 +$20 +104%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 11 $45 +$32 +71%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Nov 10 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Paramount Group (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 10 $134 −$133 -99%
Will Getty Images Holdings (GETY) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 10 $9 +$54 +614%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Nov 10 $24 +$35 +143%
Will The RealReal (REAL) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 10 $35 −$35 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Nov 10 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 10? Nov 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) beat quarterly earni Nov 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Nov 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06? Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Dominika Salkova Nov 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Warby Parker (WRBY) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arm Holdings (ARM) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Chennai Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Nov 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Chennai Open: Mia Pohankova vs Diane Parry Nov 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% +$126
sports 24% −$92
politics 19% −$170
finance 9% −$200
world 8% −$174
crypto 3% −$300
tech 1% −$76
economics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $8 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $30 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $42 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 15h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $10 21h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 21h
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 22h
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 22h
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 22h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $38 22h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $3 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 52¢ $20 22h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $17 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $197 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $62 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $90 24h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $89 24h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 6¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.0% -18.6% 56% 33% -2.1%
≤30d 16 -49.4% -54.2% 31% 19% -53.6%
≤90d 16 -49.4% -54.2% 31% 19% -53.6%
all 278 +6.9% -3.2% 37% 35% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 35% -16.8%
10% -12.5% 33% -24.7%
15% -21.0% 31% -32.0%
20% -28.7% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.96 · official $458.20 (match) · 821 history records