Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x460b…4d66 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-35%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$16
other 13% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 50% -41.1%
≤30d 2 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 50% -41.1%
≤90d 6 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -33.6%
all 6 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 50% -33.6%
10% -21.8% 50% -39.9%
15% -29.4% 50% -45.7%
20% -36.3% 33% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage65d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 +$21 +70%
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $14 +$6 +46%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $14 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $9 +$5 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Austria win on 2026- BUY 15¢ $25 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 4h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 4h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 59d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $20 64d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 68¢ $14 64d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 88¢ $14 64d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 89¢ $14 64d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $14 64d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 62¢ $9 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records