Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4615…5ccb
crypto · 195 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5,192 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,690 · open +$362
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,761
Realized−$5,690
Unrealized+$362
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses105 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions36
Markets (closed)155 / 195
History coverage45d
Avg bet$1,082
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 36 History 155 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$80
14 days−$9,564
30 days−$6,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $782 $806 +$24 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 39¢ 97¢ $160 $401 +$241 (+151%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $305 $312 +$8 (+2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $290 $312 +$22 (+8%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $284 $281 −$3 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $165 $167 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 42¢ 94¢ $44 $97 +$54 (+123%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $92 $95 +$3 (+3%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 88¢ $88 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? No 96¢ 99¢ $84 $87 +$3 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $81 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $89 $82 −$7 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 80¢ $81 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 78¢ 77¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $71 $76 +$4 (+6%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $73 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $54 $50 −$5 (-9%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 81¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 +$9 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $31 +$15 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 12 $38 −$10 -28%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $64 −$3 -5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $91 +$10 +11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $66 −$4 -6%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $55 −$5 -9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $180 +$150 +83%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $819 −$99 -12%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $58 −$2 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $73 +$26 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $33 +$25 +74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $54 −$22 -41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 08 $1,897 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $19 +$21 +110%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 06 $237 −$9 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 06 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $1,903 −$645 -34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $1,200 −$569 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $3,089 −$174 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $699 +$38 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $14,081 +$872 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $2,219 −$996 -45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $4,438 −$1,638 -37%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $447 −$30 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $10,260 −$7,898 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $323 +$14 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $244 −$138 -57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,052 +$317 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 01 $647 +$10 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 01 $149 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,955 −$606 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,497 +$172 +12%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 01 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $2,885 +$110 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 31 $742 +$48 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 31 $6,668 +$854 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? May 31 $601 +$30 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $6 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $200 +$100 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$5,358
other 16% −$747
finance 6% +$797
world 5% +$55
weather 0% −$102
sports 0% +$39
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 60¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $42 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $42 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $42 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $41 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 14h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $287 19h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $45 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 26h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $18 26h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 26h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) AND Spread: Uzbek BUY 31¢ $102 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 23¢ $102 27h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Spread: Australia (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Ira BUY 16¢ $10 27h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 28h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 30¢ $34 39h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 31¢ $12 39h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 31¢ $2 39h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 31¢ $13 39h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 31¢ $2 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $37 40h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $91 40h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $79 40h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 81¢ $82 40h
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 88¢ $89 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.0% -8.7% 42% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 117 -3.0% -12.2% 62% 21% -13.2%
≤90d 155 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 16% -12.0%
all 155 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 16% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 16% -12.0%
10% -19.8% 9% -20.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 6% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,760.66 · official $4,070.66 · 1214 history records