Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4615…8a2e world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 30% +$1
world 28% −$3
politics 16% $0
other 13% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -10.1%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage297d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $73 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $34 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $70 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $32 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $34 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $34 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $298 +$1 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $3 $0 +4%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 12h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $29 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $3 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $31 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $21 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $21 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $34 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 66¢ $3 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 66¢ $3 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 66¢ $3 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 66¢ $24 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 63¢ $32 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $12 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records