Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
46 0x4616…6565 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+5%) realized +$20 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$29
sports 36% −$12
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +49.9% +35.7% 35% 18% -2.3%
≤30d 18 +41.6% +28.1% 33% 17% -3.4%
≤90d 18 +41.6% +28.1% 33% 17% -3.4%
all 18 +41.6% +28.1% 33% 17% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.1% 17% -3.4%
10% +15.9% 17% -12.7%
15% +4.7% 17% -21.1%
20% -5.6% 17% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +151% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+4%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 30¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 31¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +58%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $49 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$47 +1521%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $27 +$23 +86%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -78%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$17 -86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $43 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $43 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 8h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Down 55¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 55¢ $2 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $19 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 10¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 97¢ $49 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $12 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 71¢ $3 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 97¢ $48 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $43 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $43 5d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $13 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.14 · official $68.14 (match) · 39 history records