Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
46 0x4618…758e crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate85%29W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$1
economics 22% −$1
crypto 16% +$1
other 11% +$1
world 6% +$2
tech 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 25% -7.9%
≤30d 4 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 25% -7.9%
≤90d 15 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 20% -8.7%
all 34 -3.5% -12.7% 85% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 9% -9.5%
10% -21.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses29 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage619d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 26 $105 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 15 $163 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $2 $0 +11%
Spurs vs. Kings Apr 21 $2 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 21 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Feb 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Jan 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Jan 26 $184 +$1 +0%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Nov 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 15 $1,297 −$1 -0%
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? Oct 15 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 15 $500 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $18 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 42d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 42d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $5 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $163 66d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 66d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 66d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 66d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 100d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 100d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 100d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 100d
76ers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 90¢ $2 100d
Spurs vs. Kings BUY Spurs 88¢ $2 100d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $105 129d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $10 129d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $101 150d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.94 · official $206.94 (match) · 76 history records