Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4618…5a9f
crypto · 260 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$119 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$84 · open −$60
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses130 / 127
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)257 / 260
History coverage41d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 257 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$68
14 days−$56
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $65 −$55 (-46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 50¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +181%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +85%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$28 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $12 +$24 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% +$132
other 27% −$120
world 13% −$37
sports 13% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +15.3% +4.3% 62% 62% +20.3%
≤30d 256 +2.5% -7.3% 51% 49% -5.8%
≤90d 257 +2.3% -7.4% 51% 49% -7.3%
all 257 +2.3% -7.4% 51% 49% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 49% -7.3%
10% -16.3% 47% -16.2%
15% -24.4% 46% -24.3%
20% -31.8% 45% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.55 · official $66.81 · 843 history records