Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x461c…20ab other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,250 (-43%) realized −$12,249 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days−$2,078
14 days−$4,352
30 days−$11,721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$9,995
other 12% −$759
sports 11% +$289
crypto 7% −$1,463
tech 3% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.2% -21.5% 23% 23% -61.1%
≤30d 63 -4.8% -13.8% 41% 40% -47.4%
≤90d 63 -4.8% -13.8% 41% 40% -47.4%
all 63 -4.8% -13.8% 41% 40% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 40% -47.4%
10% -22.1% 35% -52.4%
15% -29.6% 33% -57.0%
20% -36.5% 25% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$439 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$12,249
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage27d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $127 +$101 +79%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 29 $101 +$27 +27%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jun 28 $125 +$78 +63%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $130 +$74 +57%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $128 −$89 -69%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $1,453 −$1,362 -94%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $68 −$16 -23%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $109 −$17 -15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 +$17 +419%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $68 −$62 -91%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $36 −$22 -62%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $109 −$28 -26%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $62 −$50 -81%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $75 −$18 -25%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $109 −$38 -35%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $109 −$17 -16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 −$66 -59%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $91 −$59 -65%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $72 −$38 -53%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $109 −$58 -53%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $201 +$10 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $1,818 −$1,671 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 20 $984 −$942 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 20 $352 −$272 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 20 $523 −$373 -71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $300 −$188 -62%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $200 +$758 +379%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $508 +$543 +107%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $198 −$157 -79%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5,407 +$674 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,325 −$8,020 -86%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $504 +$196 +39%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $99 +$99 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 +$15 +50%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $253 −$250 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$151 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $92 +$123 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $153 +$191 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $127 7h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $128 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Sc BUY 48¢ $79 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 61¢ $125 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $130 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes $39 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $91 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $52 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $81 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $71 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $92 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 35¢ $45 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 23¢ $32 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $91 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $51 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $111 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $101 7d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 19¢ $51 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $118 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.73 · official $118.73 (match) · 315 history records