Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x461d…7ff7 sports 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,705 (-2%) realized −$2,932 · open +$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%125W / 12L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$853per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$237
14 days−$573
30 days−$1,336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% −$1,235
weather 21% +$77
crypto 16% −$726
sports 13% −$463
other 9% −$554
tech 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.3% -13.4% 93% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 65 -4.8% -13.9% 91% 5% -11.8%
≤90d 137 -2.9% -12.2% 91% 7% -11.9%
all 137 -2.9% -12.2% 91% 7% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 7% -11.9%
10% -20.6% 3% -20.4%
15% -28.2% 1% -28.1%
20% -35.3% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$950) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$569 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$10,105
Realized−$2,932
Unrealized+$227
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses125 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions10
Markets (closed)137 / 147
History coverage79d
Avg bet$853
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,921 $2,971 +$50 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,803 $1,799 −$4 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,153 $1,149 −$4 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 89¢ 98¢ $1,039 $1,144 +$105 (+10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,015 $1,050 +$35 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $785 $812 +$27 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $411 $414 +$3 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $316 $326 +$10 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $228 $230 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $208 $209 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,298 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $1,030 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $109 +$3 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,680 +$3 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,224 +$28 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,192 +$36 +3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$29 -92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,205 +$19 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5,655 +$82 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2,795 +$6 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2,473 +$59 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 13 $2,462 +$19 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $652 −$650 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $543 +$132 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $302 −$300 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $294 +$6 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $332 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 5? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 5? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $699 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $105 +$4 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $651 +$49 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 04 $701 +$22 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 04 $312 +$57 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $249 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $125 +$5 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $2,640 +$192 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $272 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $504 +$3 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $265 +$7 +3%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $471 +$24 +5%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $461 +$17 +4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $450 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $430 +$3 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $419 +$35 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $3,633 +$42 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 29? May 29 $53 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 24 $1,073 −$1,073 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 24 $887 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 24 $744 +$219 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $78 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $799 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $276 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,803 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 98¢ $109 34h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,047 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $85 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $166 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $509 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,230 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,224 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,192 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,680 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $468 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $109 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $628 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,105.29 · official $10,105.29 (match) · 567 history records