Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x461d…2eda
crypto · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$31 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$90 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses24 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 5 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 73¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$27 -40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% +$102
other 9% −$6
sports 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $23 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $34 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $18 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.1% -3.1% 65% 54% -3.0%
≤30d 37 +7.1% -3.1% 65% 54% -3.0%
≤90d 37 +7.1% -3.1% 65% 54% -3.0%
all 37 +7.1% -3.1% 65% 54% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 54% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 38% -12.3%
15% -20.8% 32% -20.8%
20% -28.6% 19% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.49 · official $38.49 (match) · 148 history records