Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x461e…938c sports 70 markets active 5d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$422 (-9%) realized −$422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$586
14 days−$478
30 days−$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$461
politics 3% +$5
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$10
other 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.6% -26.4% 40% 33% -35.8%
≤30d 70 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 39% -18.5%
≤90d 70 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 39% -18.5%
all 70 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 39% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 39% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 26% -26.3%
15% -32.3% 17% -33.4%
20% -38.9% 7% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$33 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 34
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage13d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$9 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$25 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$13 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $59 −$8 -14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $69 −$49 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $125 −$40 -32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $299 −$43 -14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $356 −$350 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $526 −$19 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $241 −$85 -35%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $62 +$30 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $194 +$57 +30%
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $462 −$367 -79%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $371 +$96 +26%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 08 $1 $0 -11%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $191 +$39 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $186 +$14 +8%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 07 $10 −$1 -5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $93 +$26 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $170 +$52 +31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $110 +$32 +30%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $100 −$5 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $30 +$57 +186%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $66 +$9 +13%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $80 +$11 +13%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $20 −$4 -21%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 04 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$19 +37%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $10 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $40 +$3 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $93 +$43 +47%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 04 $95 +$7 +7%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $4 −$3 -79%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +46%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $50 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $51 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 96¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 82¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 84¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 30¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 16¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 54¢ $84 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 83¢ $90 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $34 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $125 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 86¢ $67 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 85¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $31 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 55¢ $132 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 1¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 80¢ $79 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 80¢ $72 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 302 history records