Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x461e…61fa other 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$258 (+6%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%100W / 112L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$183
other 26% +$263
sports 22% −$126
politics 2% −$97
finance 1% +$5
world 0% +$5
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.8% +0.3% 80% 40% +7.9%
≤30d 5 +10.8% +0.3% 80% 40% +7.9%
≤90d 22 -32.1% -38.6% 32% 18% -8.7%
all 212 -11.2% -19.7% 47% 36% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 36% -3.3%
10% -27.4% 30% -12.6%
15% -34.4% 24% -21.0%
20% -40.8% 19% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses100 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage151d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $27 −$16 -59%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $37 +$28 +76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Apr 08 $11 −$11 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 08 $9 +$12 +130%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Apr 05 $4 −$3 -97%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 04 $2 +$3 +154%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Apr 04 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 24 $1 $0 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 24 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $1 $0 -51%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 23 $3 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $4 $0 +2%
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? Mar 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 22 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $1 +$4 +370%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $2 $0 -12%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-28? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 24? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $7 −$3 -49%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $1 +$3 +191%
Will Elon Musk post 20-29 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Mar 13 $61 −$38 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $11 16m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $21 31m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 31m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 31m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $31 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $4 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 3¢ $2 62d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 3¢ $0 62d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 3¢ $0 62d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 6¢ $0 63d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 6¢ $6 63d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week SELL Yes 1¢ $0 74d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 70¢ $21 74d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 30¢ $3 76d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 31¢ $6 76d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 658 history records