Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x4621…f0a1 other 8 markets active 8h ago coverage 360d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,641 (+5%) realized +$30 · open +$2,611
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$6,041per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$18,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$2,305
world 33% +$10,288
politics 23% −$8,484
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 40% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 40% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 40% -14.4%
15% -28.7% 40% -22.7%
20% -35.7% 20% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5,144 vs −$2,930 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$18,215
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$2,611
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage360d
Avg bet$6,041
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10,759 $13,612 +$2,852 (+27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,379 $3,168 −$211 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,466 $1,436 −$31 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 14 $7,987 −$7,987 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 07 $5,249 −$306 -6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $2,967 −$497 -17%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 22 $997 +$390 +39%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $15,091 +$9,898 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,499 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3,480 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $686 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $328 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4,803 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5,136 23h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $99 23h
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? BUY No 49¢ $989 246d
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? BUY No 47¢ $500 246d
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? BUY No 46¢ $1,500 246d
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? BUY No 57¢ $4,997 248d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? SELL Yes 4¢ $259 344d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $368 345d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,848 345d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $2,468 345d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes 3¢ $3,254 345d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes 1¢ $995 346d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 346d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 27¢ $2,470 349d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 33¢ $2,967 353d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 46¢ $1,388 359d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 33¢ $997 360d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 98¢ $24,989 360d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 59¢ $15,091 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,215.40 · official $18,215.40 (match) · 26 history records