Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4621…9ba4
crypto · 12 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$112 +37%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$113 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 1 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$113
14 days+$113
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 48¢ 100¢ $11 $23 +$12 (+108%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$12 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $61 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $18 +$9 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% +$67
sports 9% +$34
other 9% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 41m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $81 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $61 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $18 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.7% +17.4% 73% 73% +25.8%
≤30d 11 +29.7% +17.4% 73% 73% +25.8%
≤90d 11 +29.7% +17.4% 73% 73% +25.8%
all 11 +29.7% +17.4% 73% 73% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 73% +25.8%
10% +6.1% 64% +13.7%
15% -4.1% 55% +2.8%
20% -13.5% 45% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.62 · official $37.62 (match) · 21 history records