Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x4628…2f20 crypto 853 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+3%) realized +$51 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%471W / 380L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$9
14 days−$260
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$10
sports 2% +$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 56% -6.7%
≤30d 665 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 50% -16.3%
≤90d 851 -3.1% -12.4% 55% 54% -8.7%
all 851 -3.1% -12.4% 55% 54% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 54% -8.7%
10% -20.7% 52% -17.5%
15% -28.4% 48% -25.4%
20% -35.4% 43% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses471 / 380
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)851 / 853
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.41 · official $3.41 (match) · 1640 history records