Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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46 0x4628…d573 sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,110 (-4%) realized −$1,115 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%65W / 51L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$995
sports 23% +$62
other 14% −$1
politics 12% +$57
tech 3% +$174
crypto 3% −$101
finance 2% −$17
culture 2% −$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +0.3% -9.2% 59% 54% -8.5%
≤30d 56 +0.3% -9.2% 59% 54% -8.5%
≤90d 57 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 53% -8.5%
all 116 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 39% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 39% -14.0%
10% -18.8% 25% -22.2%
15% -26.6% 21% -29.7%
20% -33.8% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$57 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$2,769
Realized−$1,115
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions11
Markets (closed)116 / 127
History coverage347d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $1,446 $1,405 −$41 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 48¢ $1,226 $1,166 −$60 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Wuning: Max Purcell vs Xirui Han Max Purcell 93¢ 88¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
ITF Wuning: Matthew Dellavedova vs Kuan-Yi Lee Matthew Dellavedova 80¢ 82¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 50¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 51¢ 98¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+91%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 52¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 44¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
ITF Wuning: Max Purcell vs Xirui Han Xirui Han 12¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies 40¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs Eva Marie Desvignes Eva Marie Desvignes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 24 $38 +$8 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $14 +$13 +93%
Set 1 Winner: Rakotomanga vs Zhu Jun 24 $17 +$5 +30%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $12 +$6 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
ITF Tarvisio: Matilde Paoletti vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric Jun 24 $24 +$11 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu Jun 23 $1 +$1 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $8 +$8 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Laura Samson Jun 23 $113 +$39 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $162 +$26 +16%
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 23 $147 +$14 +10%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $52 −$11 -21%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $31 +$18 +59%
ITF Tarvisio: Alina Granwehr vs Sapfo Sakellaridi Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina Jun 23 $128 −$127 -100%
ITF Taipei: Mio Mushika vs Yuki Naito Jun 23 $33 +$10 +30%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Kamen: Hazem Naw vs Adrian Oetzbach Jun 23 $11 −$10 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 22 $19 −$18 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 22 $31 −$31 -99%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon Jun 22 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$5 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $11 +$1 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $13 +$27 +197%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $42 −$1 -2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 22 $33 +$7 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $8 +$1 +13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $4 +$4 +97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $15 +$27 +176%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Jun 22 $34 +$6 +18%
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer Jun 22 $42 +$6 +15%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 22 $24 −$5 -19%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 22 $49 −$48 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $35 +$6 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $23 +$18 +79%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $26 +$10 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $68 +$54 +79%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $250 +$100 +40%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $47 −$6 -13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $60 −$20 -33%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $55 −$2 -3%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 22 $18 −$18 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1,244 41m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $43 41m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $83 43m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $87 48m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $47 52m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $44 54m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $60 56m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $92 58m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $68 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $48 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $68 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $66 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $65 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $55 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $19 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $8 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $104 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $5 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $81 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $100 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $64 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $59 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $50 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $71 1h
ITF Wuning: Max Purcell vs Xirui Han BUY Max Purcell 92¢ $19 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $94 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $18 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
ITF Wuning: Max Purcell vs Xirui Han BUY Max Purcell 93¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,768.69 · official $2,768.69 (match) · 728 history records