Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x462d…ce9b sports 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10,104 (+1%) realized +$11,043 · open −$939
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%173W / 191L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,863per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$8,884est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$15,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 246d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$15,870
crypto 14% −$14,777
other 8% +$5,621
world 1% −$5,267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +15.0% +4.0% 62% 62% +17.9%
≤30d 153 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 52% -4.0%
≤90d 297 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 36% -18.5%
all 364 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 48% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 46% -17.6%
15% -33.4% 45% -25.6%
20% -40.0% 38% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$3,523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,687 vs −$2,421 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$15,338
Realized+$11,043
Unrealized−$939
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses173 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$8,884
Open positions5
Markets (closed)364 / 372
History coverage246d
Avg bet$2,863
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 71¢ $5,850 $7,692 +$1,842 (+31%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 57¢ 53¢ $5,000 $4,634 −$366 (-7%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Under 61¢ 30¢ $5,000 $2,489 −$2,511 (-50%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $325 $400 +$75 (+23%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $102 $123 +$21 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$46 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5,198 −$4,921 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2,003 +$2,345 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $7,500 +$2,500 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,257 +$595 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5,115 +$2,361 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,084 +$4,224 +52%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5,057 +$2,972 +59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $8,097 +$5,377 +66%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,344 +$4,130 +176%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,791 +$6,088 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9,953 +$13,610 +137%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1,207 −$1,185 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1,023 −$886 -87%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1,920 +$2,080 +108%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $5,499 +$4,500 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,343 −$5,267 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3,575 −$3,523 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,311 −$2,261 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,303 −$2,255 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4,050 −$4,000 -99%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $3,889 +$1,646 +42%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $1,776 +$2,090 +118%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 31 $3,269 −$3,267 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1,431 −$1,400 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $3,049 +$3,406 +112%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $4,065 −$4,050 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $5,477 −$5,395 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $2,557 −$2,500 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) May 31 $4,480 +$3,512 +78%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 31 $3,267 −$3,267 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $7,210 +$7,636 +106%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 31 $3,611 +$3,657 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 30 $28,186 −$27,709 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $20,092 +$8,156 +41%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3,825 −$3,750 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $14,234 −$14,000 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $20,988 −$20,983 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 30 $2,033 +$2,407 +118%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 30 $5,365 −$5,300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $832 −$832 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $11,793 +$10,808 +92%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $2,521 +$2,990 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 29 $2,093 −$2,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 29 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 29 $2,964 −$2,864 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $2,062 +$1,511 +73%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 29 $1,823 −$1,800 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $2,694 +$2,157 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 29 $2,399 +$2,046 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 32m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 33m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $79 33m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 33m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1,876 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $202 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $253 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 40¢ $3,054 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $2,550 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $759 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $759 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $759 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $759 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $4,055 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5,064 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5,058 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1,241 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $181 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1,175 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1,087 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $926 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $588 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,337.87 · official $24,287.86 · 1371 history records