Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x462f…cbd6 sports 118 markets active 21h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized −$381 · open +$401
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$159
14 days−$129
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$126
other 23% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -25.4% -32.5% 41% 35% -18.7%
≤30d 80 -27.8% -34.6% 35% 31% -27.0%
≤90d 116 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 48% -16.7%
all 116 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 48% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 48% -16.7%
10% -26.3% 39% -24.6%
15% -33.4% 32% -31.9%
20% -39.9% 24% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$33 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$724
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$401
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 57
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage60d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 16¢ $300 $703 +$403 (+134%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$16 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$59 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$31 -60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $140 +$74 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $246 +$31 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$32 -63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$62 +121%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$33 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $283 −$32 -11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $168 +$17 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$29 -58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $151 +$48 +32%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $40 −$11 -27%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $100 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $73 −$72 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $117 +$12 +10%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $64 −$3 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $86 +$28 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $152 +$86 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $28 −$27 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $123 −$82 -67%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $172 +$98 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $137 −$94 -69%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$142 +139%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $101 +$34 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $101 +$20 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova May 29 $62 +$11 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $142 −$140 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $64 +$48 +74%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 26 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 24 $30 +$33 +113%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 24 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 24 $7 +$5 +68%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 24 $10 −$3 -30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner May 24 $15 −$3 -21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 39¢ $34 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $51 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $42 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $88 47h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $34 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $157 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 49¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $51 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $80 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $62 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $156 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $214 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $140 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $85 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 77¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 79¢ $56 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $246 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $411 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 45¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 75¢ $37 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 65¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 42¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.53 · official $723.53 (match) · 323 history records