Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4632…dbc2 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-12%) realized −$142 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%26W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$62
14 days−$77
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$34
other 27% −$88
world 4% +$2
finance 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -37.8% -43.8% 31% 31% -36.8%
≤30d 15 -30.5% -37.1% 33% 33% -25.5%
≤90d 75 -20.5% -28.1% 28% 20% -22.7%
all 88 -16.2% -24.2% 30% 23% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 23% -21.0%
10% -31.5% 20% -28.6%
15% -38.1% 16% -35.5%
20% -44.1% 14% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses26 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage341d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $31 $42 +$11 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$10 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $25 +$33 +134%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Mar 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Cerundolo Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $15 +$7 +45%
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Mar 25 $25 +$13 +51%
Miami Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Arthur Fils Mar 24 $23 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz Mar 24 $29 +$50 +174%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik Mar 24 $23 −$12 -53%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Mar 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 23 $24 +$1 +2%
Miami Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Ugo Humbert Mar 23 $72 −$21 -29%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mboko Mar 23 $15 +$4 +30%
Alicante: Sebastian Ofner vs Timofey Skatov Mar 23 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-2.5) Mar 23 $5 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $26 $0 -1%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Mar 23 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5) Mar 23 $10 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 23 $16 $0 -2%
Alicante: Edas Butvilas vs Pol Martin Tiffon Mar 23 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Mar 23 $5 $0 -2%
Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Terence Atmane Mar 23 $7 −$1 -8%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Mar 23 $5 $0 -3%
Split: Tom Gentzsch vs Jonas Forejtek Mar 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 23 $5 $0 -2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Miami Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Mar 23 $5 $0 -3%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 23 $7 +$4 +56%
Miami Open: Ethan Quinn vs Jiri Lehecka Mar 22 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 −$3 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $51 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $42 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 42¢ $25 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 83d
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils BUY Tommy Paul 46¢ $5 84d
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils BUY Tommy Paul 45¢ $15 84d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Nuggets 69¢ $15 84d
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $38 84d
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff BUY Belinda Bencic 52¢ $13 84d
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.52 · official $41.52 (match) · 242 history records