Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4632…193a crypto 1729 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$607 (-0%) realized −$607 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1685W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$849
7 days−$867
14 days−$913
30 days−$1,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,690
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -6.9% -15.8% 92% 0% -27.7%
≤30d 739 -1.7% -11.0% 96% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 1737 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.9%
all 1737 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$94 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$607
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1685 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1737 / 1729
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1737 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $42 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records