Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
46 0x4638…6b0a sports 895 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$757 (+1%) realized +$756 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%874W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$42
14 days−$136
30 days+$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$422
world 9% +$396
other 7% +$13
crypto 6% +$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 868 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 887 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 1% -8.3%
all 894 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 1% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -7.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -16.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -24.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$756
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses874 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)894 / 895
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 894 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $186 $187 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $223 +$2 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $223 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $149 +$1 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $273 +$2 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $800 +$1 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $200 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $74 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $600 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $174 +$1 +0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $174 +$1 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $223 57m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $8 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $7 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $74 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $15 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $198 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $25 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $15 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $74 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $74 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $30 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $74 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 100¢ $15 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $116 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $106 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $800 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $100 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $100 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $50 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $50 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.30 · official $187.30 (match) · 3500 history records