Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4639…d9d8
crypto · 509 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses399 / 109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)508 / 509
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 508 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$25
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 69¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -7.8% -16.5% 79% 77% -14.7%
≤30d 508 -6.2% -15.1% 79% 60% -12.7%
≤90d 508 -6.2% -15.1% 79% 60% -12.7%
all 508 -6.2% -15.1% 79% 60% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 60% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 15% -21.0%
15% -30.7% 5% -28.7%
20% -37.5% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.72 (match) · 1080 history records