Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x463a…af96 weather 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$9 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.7% -31.9% 20% 20% -6.7%
≤30d 5 -24.7% -31.9% 20% 20% -6.7%
≤90d 5 -24.7% -31.9% 20% 20% -6.7%
all 5 -24.7% -31.9% 20% 20% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 20% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 0% -15.6%
15% -44.4% 0% -23.8%
20% -49.8% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 29? No 95¢ 98¢ $148 $152 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? No 69¢ 83¢ $28 $33 +$6 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 29? Yes 30¢ 60¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 29? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 69¢ $13 34m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 69¢ $15 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? SELL No 54¢ $11 47m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? SELL No 65¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? SELL No 66¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? SELL No 88¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29? SELL No 87¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 77¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $148 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.83 · official $190.80 (match) · 33 history records