Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x463c…6347 sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$255 (-30%) realized −$254 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$211
14 days−$148
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$194
politics 9% −$77
other 7% −$29
finance 6% +$2
tech 2% −$4
world 2% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.5% -24.5% 43% 38% -47.9%
≤30d 54 +13.0% +2.3% 33% 30% -40.4%
≤90d 54 +13.0% +2.3% 33% 30% -40.4%
all 54 +13.0% +2.3% 33% 30% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 30% -40.4%
10% -7.5% 30% -46.1%
15% -16.5% 30% -51.3%
20% -24.6% 26% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage22d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 +$10 +73%
Kicker vs. Coria: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $7 $0 +7%
Forti vs. Guerrieri: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $8 +$9 +105%
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Raducanu (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $4 +$4 +101%
Brancaccio vs. Bronzetti: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $7 +$6 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $36 −$27 -74%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Rybakina vs. Maria: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 +$11 +104%
Quevedo vs. Samson: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $56 −$55 -100%
Samuel vs. Holmgren: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $47 +$27 +57%
Bronzetti vs. Grabher: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $41 +$37 +90%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $28 −$28 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
McNally vs. Sierra: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $70 −$69 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Sun vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Borges vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $8 +$7 +90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$49 +2435%
Daniel Altmaier vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 +$32 +155%
Gabriel Diallo vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +114%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 07 $3 +$4 +129%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $5 +$3 +50%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $4 +$11 +278%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +333%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Luxembourg 0 - 0 Italy? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? May 29 $78 −$76 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 1h
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 43h
Kicker vs. Coria: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 46¢ $7 5d
Forti vs. Guerrieri: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 48¢ $8 5d
Brancaccio vs. Bronzetti: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 47¢ $13 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 54¢ $9 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 47¢ $10 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 47¢ $15 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 54¢ $28 6d
Quevedo vs. Samson: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $44 6d
Samuel vs. Holmgren: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 6d
Quevedo vs. Samson: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 6d
Quevedo vs. Samson: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $36 6d
Quevedo vs. Samson: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $7 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $11 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL South Africa $0 6d
Bronzetti vs. Grabher: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 6d
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Bronzetti vs. Grabher: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $36 6d
McNally vs. Sierra: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $17 6d
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 6d
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 6d
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $14 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $28 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 58¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.30 · official $31.30 (match) · 116 history records