Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x463e…80d5
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$370 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$359 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$606
Realized+$359
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage76d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit23%
Chart Positions 8 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$345
7 days+$356
14 days+$356
30 days+$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $994 +$217 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,004 +$127 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? Apr 12 $200 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 93% +$350
world 7% +$11
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $892 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $903 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $100 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 94¢ $100 75d
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $200 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.2% +3.3% 100% 75% +5.6%
≤30d 4 +14.2% +3.3% 100% 75% +5.6%
≤90d 5 +11.7% +1.0% 100% 60% +4.4%
all 5 +11.7% +1.0% 100% 60% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 60% +4.4%
10% -8.6% 0% -5.6%
15% -17.5% 0% -14.7%
20% -25.6% 0% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.29 · official $606.29 (match) · 107 history records