Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4641…c88e crypto 48 markets active 2d ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-14%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$32
crypto 39% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 50% -20.2%
≤30d 6 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 50% -20.2%
≤90d 9 -23.7% -30.9% 44% 44% -22.6%
all 48 -20.8% -28.4% 54% 44% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 44% -22.5%
10% -35.2% 31% -29.9%
15% -41.5% 21% -36.7%
20% -47.2% 12% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage226d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +45%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 09 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 09 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 08 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 24 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 24 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 11 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 11 $6 +$4 +68%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $15 −$14 -93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $27 +$14 +53%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $23 +$4 +18%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records