Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4642…9096 world 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%25W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$33
other 29% $0
world 24% −$11
politics 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.0% -12.2% 30% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 80 +1.1% -8.5% 26% 2% -9.6%
all 95 +0.7% -8.9% 26% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses25 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage189d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $47 −$13 -28%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $173 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $151 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $11 +$2 +15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $280 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $90 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $92 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $44 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $137 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $57 +$3 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $145 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $83 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $83 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $625 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $58 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $11 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $3 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $8 7h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 36h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $34 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $35 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $47 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $47 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $47 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $13 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $13 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $52 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.08 · official $34.08 (match) · 428 history records