Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4646…e5c9 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$352 (+35%) realized +$350 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$261
other 21% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 29% +36.8%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 29% +36.8%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 29% +36.8%
all 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 29% +36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 29% +36.8%
10% -18.3% 29% +23.7%
15% -26.2% 29% +11.8%
20% -33.4% 29% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$320 vs −$60 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $63 +$232 +365%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $305 +$409 +134%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $199 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 38¢ $45 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $63 26h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $99 38h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $44 45h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $305 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.32 · official $198.32 (match) · 14 history records