Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x4646…7ec4 other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$5
politics 18% −$2
sports 10% −$17
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -1.8% -11.2% 12% 6% -9.7%
all 104 -1.8% -11.1% 12% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 6% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage91d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $439 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $330 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 10 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $21 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $105 32d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $105 32d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $99 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $99 33d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 33d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.43 · official $66.43 (match) · 287 history records