Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4648…0953
other · 19 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$411 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$257 · open −$154
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$476
Realized−$257
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)3 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 16 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days−$257
14 days−$257
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 59¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No $120 $60 −$60 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $30 $9 −$21 (-71%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? No $469 $0 −$469 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Yes 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $489 +$214 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $503 −$469 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$257
other 24% −$83
politics 7% −$60
world 6% −$2
tech 1% −$8
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No $10 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $10 4h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $10 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 4h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 59¢ $102 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $10 4h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 4h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $21 5h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $100 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 68¢ $489 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? BUY No $89 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? BUY No $107 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.1% -56.6% 33% 33% -33.7%
≤30d 3 -52.1% -56.6% 33% 33% -33.7%
≤90d 3 -52.1% -56.6% 33% 33% -33.7%
all 3 -52.1% -56.6% 33% 33% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.6% 33% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -60.8% 33% -40.1%
15% -64.6% 33% -45.9%
20% -68.0% 0% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.87 · official $475.87 (match) · 34 history records