Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4649…7493 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-6%) realized −$69 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$3
crypto 29% −$76
sports 8% +$14
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 29% -35.1%
≤30d 14 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 29% -35.1%
≤90d 14 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 29% -35.1%
all 14 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 29% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 29% -35.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 29% -41.3%
15% -39.6% 14% -47.0%
20% -45.6% 14% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 85¢ 100¢ $80 $94 +$14 (+17%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$14 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $13 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$19 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$3 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 84¢ $40 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $91 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $71 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? SELL Yes 71¢ $68 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $78 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 86¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $59 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $23 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.06 · official $491.07 (match) · 67 history records