Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x464b…8371 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$867 (+13%) realized +$867 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate59%26W / 18L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$853
crypto 26% −$1
finance 19% −$1
world 8% $0
tech 8% +$2
weather 1% $0
other 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 8 +4.1% -5.9% 50% 12% -7.9%
≤90d 37 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 22% +2.7%
all 44 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 27% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 27% +3.0%
10% -15.9% 23% -6.9%
15% -24.0% 20% -15.9%
20% -31.4% 14% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$8 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.41 per $1 lost it wins $7.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$867
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses26 / 18
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage101d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $298 $297 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $35 +$15 +44%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? Jun 09 $325 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 16? May 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Canadiens vs. Rangers May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Hornets vs. Kings May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks May 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns May 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $40 +$60 +152%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 15 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $5 $0 +10%
Human moon landing in 2026? May 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 15 $398 −$1 -0%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 12 $223 +$143 +64%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $439 +$389 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 25 $699 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 24 $110 +$48 +44%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 17 $538 +$17 +3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 07 $500 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $140 +$102 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 2? Apr 04 $10 $0 +2%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 04 $310 +$155 +50%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 02 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1? Apr 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 1? Apr 01 $13 $0 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Apr 01 $339 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Blues vs. Jets Mar 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +24%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $29 +$21 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 10 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 10 $21 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY No 99¢ $156 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 54¢ $17 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 30¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 52¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $4 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY No 99¢ $142 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $35 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 29d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers SELL Pistons 100¢ $100 34d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 34d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 16? BUY No 98¢ $32 34d
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 34d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,005 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $40 35d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 88¢ $4 35d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Golden Knights 91¢ $5 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 35d
Human moon landing in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $272 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $397 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.58 · official $449.58 (match) · 177 history records