Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x464d…76b5 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$1
other 24% −$2
tech 5% $0
politics 5% +$1
economics 4% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 3% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 46 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage476d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $64 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $29 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $46 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 23 $15 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $14 +$1 +9%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 17 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $28 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Funeriu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? Mar 20 $14 $0 +4%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $47 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 14h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $25 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $25 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $25 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $5 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $5 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records