Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x464e…273f other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$186 (+12%) realized +$155 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$192
14 days+$98
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$173
sports 40% −$53
politics 3% +$83
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +37.8% +24.7% 56% 56% +33.4%
≤30d 45 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 38% -1.2%
≤90d 45 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 38% -1.2%
all 49 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 41% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 41% +3.2%
10% -15.1% 41% -6.6%
15% -23.3% 37% -15.7%
20% -30.8% 37% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$15 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage598d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 56¢ 58¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $91 +$72 +79%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 +$68 +111%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +62%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +165%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$42 +413%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $367 +$86 +24%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $28 +$16 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $100 −$72 -72%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $51 +$83 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $41 35m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $61 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $129 21h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 45¢ $30 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $30 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 45¢ $30 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 62¢ $17 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $10 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $30 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.61 · official $230.61 (match) · 86 history records