Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x464f…c258 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$232 (+17%) realized +$217 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%69W / 48L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day58.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$485
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +18.3% +7.1% 59% 56% +24.7%
≤30d 117 +18.3% +7.1% 59% 56% +24.7%
≤90d 117 +18.3% +7.1% 59% 56% +24.7%
all 117 +18.3% +7.1% 59% 56% +24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 56% +24.7%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 55% +12.8%
15% -12.5% 54% +1.9%
20% -21.1% 52% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses69 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 46¢ 57¢ $64 $80 +$16 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$31 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$29 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$28 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$39 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$39 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$28 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$42 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$18 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$26 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$32 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$17 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$21 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$20 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$63 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$12 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $23 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $24 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.13 · official $67.15 · 211 history records