Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
46 0x4651…2943 crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$407 (-4%) realized −$132 · open −$275
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$421
14 days+$32
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$471
other 22% −$793
sports 20% +$810
tech 3% +$45
world 2% +$21
finance 2% −$130
politics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 58% +0.9%
≤30d 79 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -12.1%
≤90d 79 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -12.1%
all 79 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 46% -12.1%
10% -25.2% 43% -20.5%
15% -32.5% 34% -28.2%
20% -39.1% 30% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$106 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$275
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions9
Markets (closed)79 / 88
History coverage22d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $300 $247 −$53 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $200 $108 −$92 (-46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-66%)
Will a player representing Canada be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-73%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? No 17¢ 4¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-74%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$15 +15%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$66 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$119 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$32 +124%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$107 +405%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$57 +185%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $155 +$145 +94%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $245 +$105 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $151 +$44 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$101 +102%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$125 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $704 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 19h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No 17¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 30h
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.97 · official $410.26 (match) · 197 history records