Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x4653…fc2b weather 399 markets active 20h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,686 (+5%) realized +$1,686 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate89%354W / 43L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$253
14 days+$463
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$1,552
crypto 4% +$11
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +15.4% +4.4% 90% 35% -4.0%
≤30d 112 +0.5% -9.1% 85% 25% -7.4%
≤90d 261 +6.3% -3.8% 91% 29% -4.9%
all 397 +3.4% -6.4% 89% 26% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 26% -5.1%
10% -15.4% 9% -14.2%
15% -23.6% 5% -22.5%
20% -31.1% 3% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,686
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses354 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)397 / 399
History coverage119d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 397 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$27 +219%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $260 +$23 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $335 +$27 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $88 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $186 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $161 +$21 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $301 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $271 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 −$58 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $198 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $349 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $206 +$35 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$15 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $513 +$37 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $211 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $73 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $250 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $583 −$134 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $399 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $230 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $178 +$22 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $338 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $246 −$34 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $384 +$29 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $627 +$60 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $143 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $381 +$36 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 07 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $668 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $79 +$7 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 29¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 31¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $17 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $244 39h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $53 42h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $28 43h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 43h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $35 43h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 43h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $275 43h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 44h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $177 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $161 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 4¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $91 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $152 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $271 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1256 history records