Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4653…021b other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$264 (+2%) realized +$263 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%18W / 6L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$438
7 days+$746
14 days+$844
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$413
sports 25% −$642
world 15% +$416
crypto 5% +$100
weather 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.1% +0.5% 86% 86% -1.5%
≤30d 18 +1.6% -8.0% 78% 78% -8.6%
≤90d 24 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 62% -7.4%
all 24 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 62% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 62% -7.4%
10% -16.4% 17% -16.2%
15% -24.4% 12% -24.3%
20% -31.9% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$703) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$247 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses18 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage79d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? No 86¢ 86¢ $600 $601 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $603 +$95 +16%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $603 +$95 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $703 +$102 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $677 +$354 +52%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $803 −$301 -37%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $502 +$93 +18%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $603 +$102 +17%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $693 +$100 +14%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $703 +$102 +14%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $502 −$316 -63%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $633 +$100 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $80 +$39 +49%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $502 +$79 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $795 +$101 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $200 +$99 +49%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $204 −$204 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 23 $662 −$662 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $500 +$123 +25%
Campinas: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Enzo Camargo Lima Apr 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Wuning: Filip Peliwo vs Harry Wendelken Apr 06 $50 −$1 -2%
Campinas: Victor Braga vs Juan Pablo Varillas Apr 06 $200 −$1 -0%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 02 $1,000 +$39 +4%
Wizards vs. Lakers Apr 01 $1,000 +$146 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 30? Mar 31 $164 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 86¢ $602 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY No 86¢ $603 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 86¢ $603 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 87¢ $703 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $677 26h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 56¢ $502 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 88¢ $803 34h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY No 84¢ $502 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? SELL No 100¢ $705 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 85¢ $603 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $792 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 87¢ $693 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 87¢ $703 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 33¢ $186 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 87¢ $502 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $633 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 57¢ $42 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 33¢ $77 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $80 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 86¢ $502 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $896 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $795 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 67¢ $200 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 40¢ $204 18d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $623 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 80¢ $500 28d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 38¢ $662 33d
Campinas: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Enzo Camargo Lima SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 93¢ $51 72d
Wuning: Filip Peliwo vs Harry Wendelken SELL Harry Wendelken 86¢ $49 72d
Campinas: Victor Braga vs Juan Pablo Varillas SELL Juan Pablo Varillas 96¢ $199 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.68 · official $600.68 (match) · 51 history records