Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x4654…be76 crypto 48 markets active 20h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$418 (-14%) realized −$417 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%44W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$3
crypto 32% −$27
other 14% −$389
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 -1.9% -11.2% 98% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 44 -1.9% -11.2% 98% 0% -12.2%
all 47 -3.9% -13.0% 94% 0% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -22.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -30.0%
15% -29.0% 0% -36.8%
20% -35.9% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$140 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses44 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage142d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 29? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 23? May 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 23 $12 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 19? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 18? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jan 26 $1,577 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $31 20h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $12 16d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $31 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.25 · official $3.25 (match) · 94 history records