Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x4655…b1bc sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5,846 (+37%) realized +$6,117 · open −$271
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$715per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$632
7 days−$82
14 days−$1,541
30 days−$1,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$235
world 19% +$7,918
politics 15% −$2,376
other 3% −$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 44% 44% -11.2%
≤30d 12 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 33% -33.1%
≤90d 20 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 45% +26.3%
all 20 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 45% +26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 45% +26.3%
10% -4.0% 45% +14.2%
15% -13.3% 45% +3.2%
20% -21.8% 45% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +45% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,312 vs −$733 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized+$6,117
Unrealized−$271
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage593d
Avg bet$715
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 30¢ $500 $238 −$262 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $463 +$368 +79%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$556 +109%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $511 −$500 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $485 +$1,153 +238%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $489 −$479 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 08 $489 −$479 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 19 $1,015 −$998 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $3,002 +$7,918 +264%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $509 +$812 +159%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $507 +$473 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $510 +$1,156 +226%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $2,376 −$2,376 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 29 $501 +$39 +8%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $300 +$303 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 55¢ $463 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 61¢ $506 27h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 40h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $511 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $508 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $506 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $485 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $489 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $510 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $489 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 42¢ $506 33d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 43¢ $509 41d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $400 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 38¢ $509 48d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 48d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $500 52d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 53d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 93¢ $501 54d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 70¢ $0 54d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,402 66d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $600 66d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 66d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $300 68d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 28¢ $1,188 592d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 39¢ $1,188 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.35 · official $729.35 (match) · 63 history records