Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
46 0x465a…c619 sports 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,567 (+50%) realized +$9,567 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +193% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +145% what you keep after slip
Net edge+145%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate86%230W / 36L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$490est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$1,363
14 days+$2,069
30 days+$6,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$9,184
other 2% +$215
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+165.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +33.2% +20.5% 86% 76% +16.9%
≤30d 65 +326.6% +285.9% 86% 77% +18.3%
≤90d 249 +199.3% +170.8% 87% 80% +17.0%
all 266 +193.0% +165.1% 86% 79% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +165.1% 79% +17.1%
10% +139.7% 65% +5.9%
15% +116.5% 53% -4.3%
20% +95.3% 39% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +193% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +203% → late +183% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$35 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.52 per $1 lost it wins $8.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses230 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$490
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage98d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $125 +$25 +20%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $193 +$107 +56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $206 +$82 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $72 +$11 +15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $98 +$5 +5%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $188 +$29 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $328 +$81 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $205 +$22 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $255 +$88 +35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $96 +$93 +96%
Sato vs. Hayasaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $1,439 −$95 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $63 +$8 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $88 +$9 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $88 +$23 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $96 −$4 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $21 +$3 +12%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Iceland O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $4 +$11 +276%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ukraine? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Marino (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 09 $1,101 +$865 +78%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) Jun 09 $43 +$19 +45%
Lithuania vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $58 +$6 +10%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 +$4 +874%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 08 $9 +$4 +40%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +216%
Bartunkova vs. Krueger: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Centurion 2 (Doubles): Azkara/Duran vs Badenhorst/Koenig Jun 06 $2 +$4 +254%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $9 +$4 +40%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $119 +$286 +240%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $130 +$20 +15%
ITF Osijek: Briana Szabo vs Sara Barbaric Jun 03 $21 +$6 +27%
Spread: Bamin Real Potosí (-2.5) Jun 03 $2 +$4 +198%
Set 1 Winner: Dellien vs Schoenhaus Jun 02 $499 +$349 +70%
Exact Score: CD Leganés 2 - 0 CD Mirandés? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs INFURITY Gaming (+1.5) May 29 $1 +$1 +90%
Valorant: INTZ vs Team Liquid Brazil (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B May 27 $18 +$9 +49%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $0 +$2 +4757%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 27 $4 +$2 +44%
Exact Score: São Paulo FC 3 - 0 CA Boston River? May 26 $1 +$12 +1130%
Karan Singh vs. Guillaume Dalmasso: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 26 $422 −$14 -3%
LoL: Francesinhas vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 21 $517 −$383 -74%
Camila Osorio vs. Panna Udvardy: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 21 $323 +$236 +73%
Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 0.5 May 21 $23 +$2 +9%
Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5 May 21 $107 +$25 +23%
Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $8 +$1 +14%
Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $93 +$57 +61%
Exact Score: Al Najmah Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Shabab Saudi Club? May 20 $27 +$61 +225%
ITF Deauville: Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi May 20 $90 +$1,744 +1943%
Exact Score: Orgryte IS 1 - 2 IFK Goteborg? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 83¢ $125 1h
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 65¢ $99 1h
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 62¢ $94 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $3 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $9 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $3 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $2 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $100 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $100 44h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $5 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $1 47h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $6 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $66 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $15 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $103 3d
Belgium to win the second half? SELL No 45¢ $0 4d
Belgium to win the second half? SELL No 45¢ $3 4d
Belgium to win the second half? BUY No 32¢ $2 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $217 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $227 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $315 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $29 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1154 history records